— GoldenBoyPromotions (@GoldenBoyBoxing) March 22, 2014
WBA welterweight champion Marcos Maidana (35-3, 31 KO’s) is hard at work in preparing for his much awaited fight against WBC champion Floyd Mayweather Jr. (45-0, 26 KO’s) in a fight dubbed The Moment on May 3rd at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada. For Maidana, this is his big moment of his career, because a victory in this fight will set him up with a rematch with Mayweather and a purse split that will be much more favorable to him than this time around.
Maidana is expected to make in the neighborhood of $3 million for the Mayweather fight on May 3rd. That figure will likely increase to over $10 million for the rematch if Maidana is able to hand Mayweather his first defeat of his career. But for Maidana to accomplish that take, he’s going to need to be at his career best and pray that Mayweather has an off night or if he chooses to mix it up with him.
Contrary to what some boxing fans have been saying, Maidana does have a chance of winning this fight. In fact, I’d say he has a better than average chance of pulling off the upset. But it’s require that Mayweather make some mental mistakes by choosing to stand in front of him like he did his last opponent Saul “Canelo” Alvarez last September.
Mayweather has great technical skills, to be sure, but he makes all kinds of mental mistakes by choosing to slug with some of his stronger opponents. All Maidana needs to do in order to win this fight is for Mayweather to make the same mental mistakes against him that he did in the Canelo and Robert Guerrero fight. Maidana then will be in position to land something big on Mayweather to try and knock him out.
Maidana is in a very good position for the Mayweather fight due to him having fought – and beaten – the Mayweather imitator Adrien Broner in his last fight in December. Maidana was able to beat Broner by coming at him in a hurry to keep him from escaping, and throwing massive punches one after another to overwhelm Broner’s defenses. Maidana just kept throwing one monstrous shot after another, which forced Broner to cover up and try to ride out the storm.
That tactic backfired on Broner when he was knocked down in the 2nd round and hurt in the 1st. Mayweather will need to use his legs to keep from getting hit hard by Maidana in this fight.
Mayweather cannot count on his shoulder roll defense or him backing up to the ropes in hope of picking Maidana off with something. Mayweather might be able to land some nice shots in close, but it’s going to come at a big cost for him with Maidana nailing him with big shots that he’s going to have a tough time handling.
I suspect that Mayweather will get on his bike after he gets hit hard by Maidana with something big in the 1st round. The only question then will be whether Mayweather can stay on the move for 12 rounds to avoid the big punches from Maidana.